Bath Rugby v Bristol Bears
“Bristol has been inconsistent this season,” might be the understatement of the decade. Pat Lam’s side has lost 41-44 at home to Gloucester and 38-0 to Sale! They’re the playoffs’ surprise package, and Johann van Graan couldn’t be happier to see them.
Some Bristol fans may feel like they have the upper hand over Bath this season, having beaten their West Country rivals, but context is key. Bath has won the four games the teams have played, 139 – 131, after Bath destroyed the Bears 78-19 in the second round of the Premiership Cup!
That result only serves to highlight Bath’s major strength and Bristol’s biggest weakness. Van Graan’s men scored the most in the league this season. Their 651 is 16 more than the second-highest scorer, Bristol. But Bath can defend too. Bristol, on the other hand, well, they can’t.
Attack Is The Best Form Of Defence
Only one team conceded more points than the Bears this season, that was Newcastle and they only won two games in the 24/25! On average, Bristol gave up 32 points per game in the league! The Bears have also lost their last four games away from home, while Bath have won seven on the bounce at the Rec.
Unsurprisingly, the Bears do have two of the league’s top try scorers this season. They’re both outside backs, winger Gabriel Ibitoye and outside centre (and occasional winger) Kalaveti Ravouvou have scored 24 between them. Ibitoye leads the league with 13 of them.
Bath, though, has the league’s top points scorer in the shape of Fin Russell. Russell has amassed a whopping 156 points in the 1,556 minutes he has played in the league. That’s 45 more than the Bears’ top scorer, A.J. MacGinty, who has only played 992 minutes this season.
Away from the numbers, the size of Bath’s squad allied to the injuries Bristol has been battling in recent weeks will be the deciding factors here. Van Graan has been able to rest his big guns since their European success, and Bristol had to scrap to make the postseason. Only a major disaster, the kind that would cost people their jobs, can prevent Bath from making the final.
Leicester Tigers v Sale Sharks
The second semi-final promises to be what legendary wrestling commentator Jim Ross would call a “slobberknocker”. If Bath and Bristol like to play expansive, attacking rugby, then both Leicester and Sale like to hit whoever is in front of them and hit them hard.
Leicester finished three points ahead of Sale in the final standings, but Sale won more games. Unlike the West Country teams, these teams only met twice this season, with both home teams taking the win.
Those games were tight affairs, with Sale winning the combined fixtures 73 – 69 on aggregate!
Points Make A Prize
Leicester has the second-highest points scorer in the league and the joint top try scorer. Handre Pollard has scored a try, kicked 139 points from the tee and dropped a goal this season. If this game is as close as expected, drop goals could be important. Ollie Hassell-Collins has scored 13 tries, the same number as Ibitoye.
Sale’s top try scorers are Luke Cowan-Dickie and Tom Roebuck, both with nine. Fly-half George Ford is the one who has guided them to a late-season renaissance. Ford (who should be going on the Lions tour) battled an Achilles injury last summer and then tore a quadricep in October. But since his return to fitness, he’s been back to his best.
Ford has played 260 fewer minutes than Pollard, but he’s also scored a try and dropped a goal this season to add to his 86 points from the tee.
Leicester have won four of their last six home games. Sale have won four of their last six games away from the A.J. Bell though. This one is too close to call. But a Welford Road crowd desperate for a trophy, combined with a team wanting to give Michael Cheika a leaving party to remember, could get Leicester over the line.
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