Bubble Watch: Where things stand with 12 NCAA Tournament hopefuls

With Selection Sunday just around the corner, teams will soon learn their NCAA Tournament fate. Have they built a compelling enough case for an at-large bid? Will they need to bolster their résumé with conference tournament wins? Or do they need an automatic bid to qualify for the Big Dance?

All will be decided soon enough.

Heading into Saturday, FOX Sports bracket forecaster Mike DeCourcy had West Virginia, San Diego State, Indiana and North Carolina as his last four teams to get into the tournament, while Texas, Xavier, Ohio State and UC Irvine were DeCourcy’s first four teams out. Colorado State, George Mason, San Francisco and Wake Forest were listed as DeCourcy’s next four teams out of the NCAA Tournament.

Here’s how things stand with those 12 bubble teams as of Saturday evening.

Record: 21-9
Conference Tournament result: Lost to Boise State (62-52)

What it means: San Diego State is at the committee’s mercy. The Aztecs and Broncos were each fighting to get off the bubble, and there’s probably one spot between the two teams. The Aztecs have to hope their two regular-season wins over Boise State are more valuable than Thursday’s Mountain West Tournament loss. The Aztecs also have more quality wins than the Broncos, including a 73-70 victory over No. 3 Houston on Nov. 30. If the Aztecs had beaten the Broncos, they probably would have clinched a trip to March Madness, so this result makes the committee’s decision difficult.

Record: 19-13
Conference Tournament result: Lost to No. 23 Oregon (72-59)

What it means: Indiana will be sweating it out on Selection Sunday. It could go either way for the Hoosiers, who could have potentially sewn up a spot in the tourney with a win or two in the conference tournament. Instead, they will have to wait to see how other bubble teams fare.

No. 9 Indiana vs. No. 8 Oregon Highlights | Big Ten Tournament

Record: 21-11
Conference Tournament result: Lost to No. 25 Marquette (89-87)

What it means: The Musketeers had ripped off seven wins heading into the Big East Tournament, albeit none of them were Quad 1 victories. A two-point loss to a tournament-caliber team in Marquette shouldn’t hurt the Musketeers much, but a win would have stamped their trip to the Big Dance. Instead, it will be a close call for Sean Miller’s team on Selection Sunday.

Record: 22-13
Conference Tournament results: Beat Notre Dame (76-56) and Wake Forest (68-59); Lost to No. 1 Duke (74-71)

What it means: UNC had a chance to strengthen its NCAA Tournament résumé against a Duke team that was without star Cooper Flagg. The Tar Heels, though, couldn’t get the best of the Blue Devils in their third crack at them this season. While a win on Friday wouldn’t have guaranteed a trip to the Big Dance, it would have sent UNC to the ACC Tournament title with a chance to earn an automatic bid. Instead, the Tar Heels will have to hope their wins over Wake Forest and Notre Dame earlier this week will be enough to earn an at-large bid.

Record: 19-15
Conference Tournament results: Beat Vanderbilt (79-72) and No. 14 Texas A&M (94-89, 2OT); Lost to No. 8 Tennessee (83-72)

What it means: Texas helped its NCAA Tournament case with hard-fought wins over Vanderbilt and Texas A&M in the SEC Tournament. However, the Longhorns stumbled against Tennessee on Friday and now will have to rely on the committee to reward them with an at-large bid. Their deep run in the SEC Tournament might give them the nod over fellow bubble teams in their conference that didn’t fare as well this past week, such as Oklahoma, Georgia and Vanderbilt.

Record: 17-15
Conference Tournament result: Lost to Iowa (77-70)

What it means: The Buckeyes, who lost five of their final seven games, have a win this season over one of their fellow bubble teams (Texas). Is that, along with key victories over Purdue and Kentucky, enough for them to sneak into the tournament? Probably not.

Record: 28-6
Conference Tournament result: Beat Cal Poly (96-78); lost to UC San Diego (75-61)

What it means: The Anteaters have constructed a sturdy case for an at-large bid. Unfortunately for them, they fell to their Big West rival, UC San Diego, in Saturday night’s Big West Championship Game. With that, the Tritons earned an automatic bid to the Big Dance.

Record: 19-13
Conference Tournament result: Lost to Colorado (67-60)

What it means: West Virginia posted a 10-10 record in Big 12 play this season, but the Mountaineers do own six Quad 1 wins. They have several impressive wins over the likes of Gonzaga, Arizona, Kansas and Iowa State, but a loss to Colorado in the opening round of the Big 12 Conference Tournament gave the Mountaineers their fourth Quad 2 defeat.

Record: 21-11
Conference Tournament results: Lost to North Carolina (68-59)

What it means: Wake Forest’s loss to fellow bubble team North Carolina in the opening round of the ACC Tournament was a hard pill to swallow. The Demon Deacons were sitting pretty at 18-6 overall and 10-3 in conference play, but they lost four of seven down the stretch of the regular season and finished 13-7 in ACC play. This team feels like a long shot to make the Big Dance.

Record: 25-9
Conference Tournament results: Beat Nevada (67-59), Utah State (83-72) and Boise State (69-56)

What it means: The Rams have punched their ticket to the Big Dance following a dominant win over Boise State in Saturday’s Mountain West Championship Game. Winners of 10 straight games, the Rams are one of the hottest teams in the nation heading into the NCAA Tournament.

Record: 26-7
Conference Tournament results: Beat George Washington (80-65) and beat Saint Joseph’s (74-64); plays VCU on Sunday

What it means: The Patriots’ record might seem impressive, but their résumé is not. Any slip-up in the A-10 Tournament will likely take them out of contention for the NCAA Tournament. They kept their hopes alive with a dominant performance against George Washington on Friday night and a win over Saint Joseph’s on Saturday. The Patriots will take on VCU in the A-10 championship game on Sunday.

Record: 24-9
Conference Tournament result: Lost to Gonzaga (85-76)

What it means: The Dons fell to Gonzaga in the WCC semifinals last weekend and finished conference play with a 13-5 mark. They own wins over Boise State and Saint Mary’s, but their loss to the Bulldogs in the conference tournament marked their third defeat to them this season.

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